Crystal Balling 2024: Unveiling the Latest Housing Market Forecast

Posted by Heidi Schrock on Wednesday, November 15, 2023 at 12:14:02 PM By Heidi Schrock / November 15, 2023 Comment

As we approach the upcoming year, you may be contemplating whether 2024 is an opportune time to enter the real estate market, either as a buyer or a seller. To make well-informed decisions, understanding the insights of experts regarding the future of the housing market is crucial. Fortunately, projections indicate positive trends, suggesting that the prospects may be more favorable than anticipated. Here's a closer look at why the outlook for the housing market appears promising.

Experts Forecast Ongoing Home Price Appreciation

Take a look at the latest home price forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), and the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

As depicted by the left orange bars, experts are predicting an average increase of approximately 2.8% in home prices by the end of this year. Additionally, they anticipate a further 1.5% increase in prices by the close of 2024. This is significant news, particularly given the earlier concern that prices might experience a substantial decline in the current year. The reality is that, in 2023, prices did not plummet significantly, primarily due to an inadequate supply of homes relative to the high demand from prospective buyers. This persistent inventory shortage adheres to the fundamental economic principle of supply and demand, exerting upward pressure on prices as we transition into the upcoming year.

Looking ahead, experts project a continued ascent in home prices in the following year, although the rate of increase may not match that of the current year. Despite the slightly more subdued expectations for 2024, it's essential to grasp the cumulative nature of home price appreciation. In practical terms, this implies that if the experts' predictions hold true, your home's value, having increased by 2.8% this year according to the national average, is expected to see an additional 1.5% growth next year. This sustained appreciation underscores the long-term financial wisdom of homeownership.

Projections Show Sales Should Increase Slightly Next Year

While 2023 hasn’t seen a lot of home sales relative to more normal years in the housing market, experts are forecasting a bit more activity next year. Here’s what those same three organizations project for the rest of this year, and in 2024 (see graph below):

While expectations are for just a slight uptick in total sales, improved activity next year is a good thing for the housing market, and for buyers and sellers like you. As people continue to move, that opens up options for hopeful buyers who are looking for a home.

So, what do these forecasts show? The housing market is expected to be more active in 2024. That may be in part because there will always be people who need to move. People will get new jobs, have children, get married or divorced – these and other major life changes lead people to move regardless of housing market conditions. That will remain true next year, and for years to come. And if mortgage rates come down, we’ll see even more activity in the housing market.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, it’s important to know what the experts are forecasting for the future of the housing market. When you’re in the know about what’s ahead, you can make the most informed decision possible. Let's chat about the latest forecasts together, and craft a plan for your next move.